30.03.2018

Based on the monthly reports from first-level spending units, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of end-February 2018 is positive, amounting to BGN 752.3 million, or 0.7% of the projected GDP, and is formed by a national budget surplus of BGN 980.9 million and by a EU funds deficit of BGN 228.7 million. For comparison, a CFP surplus of BGN 831.8 million (0.8% of GDP) was reported for January 2017. The underlying factors for the excess of revenues over expenditures as of February are the good parameters of national budget tax and social security revenue performance.

The CFP revenues and grants in February 2018 stand at BGN 6,212.3 million, or 16.3% of the annual estimates. Compared to the same period of the previous year, tax and non-tax revenues have risen by BGN 729.0 million, or by 13.4%, with grant proceeds being lower.

Tax proceeds, including revenues from social security contributions, total BGN 5,381.1 million, which accounts for 17.3% of the revenues planned for the year. Compared to the data for February 2017, tax proceeds have risen in nominal terms by 14.0%, or by BGN 659.9 million.

Direct tax revenues amount to BGN 714.0 million, or 12.4% of the estimates planned for the year, growing by BGN 162.7 million (29.5%) compared to the same period of the previous year.

Indirect tax revenues amount to BGN 3,064.1 million, which accounts for 20.2% of the annual estimates. Compared to the data as of February 2017, proceeds in this group have grown by BGN 278.4 million, or by 10.0%. VAT proceeds amount to BGN 2,073.8 million, or 21.2% of those planned. Compared to the same period of the previous year, VAT revenues have grown by BGN 204.7 million, or by 10.9%. The amount of non-refunded VAT as of 28/02/2018 is BGN 65.8 million. The excise duty revenues amount to BGN 938.5 million, or 18.2% of the annual estimates. Customs duty proceeds amount to BGN 42.9 million, or 22.6% of the estimates for the year.

Proceeds from other taxes, including property taxes and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN 150.9 million, or 13.7% of the annual estimates.

Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions are BGN 1,452.2 million, which accounts for 15.9% of the estimates for the year. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the revenues from social security contributions have risen by BGN 198.7 million, or by 15.9%, in nominal terms. 

Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 795.1 million, which accounts for a performance of 16.9% of the annual estimates.

Grant proceeds amount to BGN 36.2 million.

CFP expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget for February 2018, amount to BGN 5,460.1 million, which accounts for 13.9% of the annual estimates. For comparison, CFP expenditures for the same period of 2017 amount to BGN 4,900.1 million. The increasing expenditures as against the same period of 2017 are mainly due to the higher amount of social payments related to the baseline effect for pension expenditures as a result of the increase in July 2017, the two-step increase in the minimum pension in 2017 (as from July and October), the higher staff costs (mostly resulting from the increase in the remuneration of pedagogical staff within the secondary education) and the increase in capital expenditures (mainly under EU fund accounts).

Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 5,134.6 million, which accounts for 13.8% of the annual estimates. Non-interest current expenditures as of February 2018 amount to BGN 4,803.9 million, or 15.4% of the estimates for the year, capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN 327.2 million, or 5.3% of the plans for 2018. The current and capital transfers to other countries amount to BGN 3.5 million, or 24.6% of the estimates for the year. Interest payments amount to BGN 105.4 million, or 14.6% of those planned for 2018.

The part of Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of 28/02/2018, amounts to BGN 220.1 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, i.e. Council Decision 2014/335/EU on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements, as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.

The fiscal reserve as of end-February 2018 is BGN 10.7 billion, including BGN 10.0 billion of fiscal reserve deposits in the BNB and in banks and BGN 0.7 billion of receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditure, advance payments, etc.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme implementation data as of 28 February 2018 are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance, in Statistics section. The statistics is accompanied by an Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the Main Indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme, which represents a short analysis of the performance of the key budget parameters on a consolidated level and by constituent budgets.