29.08.2015

"It is possible the over performance of revenues to reach 1% of GDP at the end of the year, which is around BGN 800 million", Minister of Finance Vladislav Goranov stated in an interview for Capital daily. He added that 90% of most of the proceeds were due to better collection as the budget structure did not presume to collect so many revenues and they were collected from the shadow economy. The greatest revenue collection growth the Minister reported in VAT, his expectations being that they would exceed BGN 1 billion compared to last year. "The nominal excise duty growth as at 19 August is BGN 315 million or 12% more in nominal terms." Despite the serious nominal growth of excise revenues Minister Goranov pointed out: "Unfortunately we cannot boast with fully automatic control, but the strategy is to go in this direction and to reduce the human factor in the control of excise goods".

To a question related to the estimates about the growth of the Bulgarian economy, Vladislav Goranov noted that according to data for the first two quarters the economy was developing better compared to the initial forecasts underlying the planning of the budget and the estimates were for that trend to continue. "Growth of around 2% for 2015 is realistic according to me", he is confident. However, according to him the budget is not a panacea for reaching higher economic growth - without the reforms required there is no way to reach the growth rate of states which solve their structural imbalances in a much more rational and pragmatic way.

"For me what is important is to consolidate the deficit as soon as possible. I will insist every lev surplus to go for lowering the deficit and the debt", the Finance Minister commented. According to him the problems until the end of the year are mainly along to lines. On the one hand, the final closure of the old programming period by the end of 2015 could engage additional resources for advance payments in order for the investment expenditure under individual programmes to be reimbursed by Brussels in the coming years. On the other, certain ministries are not taking the provided for in the Law measures to cope within their budgets and this probably would create problems at the end of the year.

Vladislav Goranov also commented the topical issue about the revision of the NHIF budget: "We are making every effort not to have to do this. Unfortunately, part of the measures has been taken at a late stage. However, I have the assurances of the Minister of Health and of the NHIF manager that we will avoid such a situation. I am not inclined the system to generate deficits every year and the expenditure level to rise by 10-15% on an annual basis".

When requested to assess the Bulgarian credit market in the context of the situation in Greece, the Minister of Finance was of the opinion that the failures in the Greek state influenced the overall climate, but they did not have direct impact on Bulgarian banks owned by Greek owners, because the measures taken in 2014 had minimised the risks of uncertainty spill over. He is not excluding the possibility in addition to consolidation between the Greek banks themselves that we might see also sales of their businesses in Bulgaria. In regard to the work of the Government on joining the euro zone and the single banking supervision, the Minister specified that the single banking supervision required an obligatory Assets Quality Review in order for our country to be able to join it. "It would be good to join the euro zone because the advantages are much more than the disadvantages and the risks. We have to be in a maximum hurry as far as the fulfilment of the formal criteria allows us", is Minister Goranov's position.