31.03.2016

Based on preliminary data and estimates the balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) on a cash basis for the first quarter of 2016 is expected to be positive, amounting to BGN 1,856.0 million (2.1% of the projected GDP). For comparison, a CFP surplus of BGN 255.9 million (0.3% of GDP) was reported in the first quarter of 2015, which means that, as a relative share of GDP, the budget stance has improved by 1.8 percentage points.

The improved budget stance is still due to the growth of revenues and the containment of expenditures as compared to the same period of the previous year. In March we traditionally witness high budget revenues due to the specificities of the tax calendar. In the last four days of March only, the proceeds administered by the revenue administrations amount to over BGN 0.5 billion. In addition to the higher tax revenues and revenues from social security and health insurance contributions, in March 2016 approximately BGN 783 million were received from the European Commission in terms of grants. Part of this amount refers to expenditures incurred at the end of 2015 and refunded to Bulgaria, and the rest refers to advance payments under European programmes for the new programming period 2014 - 2020.

Having in mind the tax calendar and the one-off nature of some of the proceeds in the past quarter as well as the shifting of a considerable portion of the investment expenditures (including under the European programmes) to the second half of the year, the projected level of the budget surplus may not be unequivocally interpreted as a lasting trend of budget balance improvement. The good parameters as regards the current budget execution for the quarter should be considered a guarantee that the projected budget balance for the year is achievable.

Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:

For the first quarter of 2016, CFP revenues and grants are expected to be BGN 9,080.2 million (27.5% of the annual estimate), registering a growth by BGN 1,285.1 million as against March 2015. The growth compared to the previous year is mainly due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues and grant proceeds (funds reimbursed by the European Commission) which rise by BGN 764.9 million and BGN 520.2 million, respectively.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, as of March 2016 amount to BGN 7,224.2 million, which accounts for 20.7% of the annual estimates. The expenditures for the same period of the previous year are to the amount of BGN 7,539.2 million.

The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of 31.03.2016, amounts to BGN 253.9 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom on the system of the Communities' own resources and Council Regulation No 1150/2000, as amended by Regulation No 2018/2004, Regulation No 105/2009 and Regulation No 1377/2014, implementing Decision 2007/436/EC.

The statistics and the Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the key Consolidated Fiscal Programme indicators based on the monthly data on cash execution of the budgets of first-level spending units will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of April 2016.