03.01.2025

Based on preliminary data and estimates the budget balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) for 2024 is expected to be deficit, amounting to around BGN 6.1 billion (3 percent of the forecast GDP). In the context of an extremely tight budget, the preliminary estimates show that Bulgaria’s budget position corresponds to the one envisaged under CFP in the estimates within the Law on the 2024 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria, adopted at the end of 2023. The CFP deficit is estimated to improve compared to the level of the indicator set out in the annual plans (deficit of BGN 6.2 billion). Huge efforts have been made both to improve revenue collection and to contain expenditure pressures.

The Ministry of Finance’s forecast currently projects the general government deficit for 2024 to remain within the reference value under the Stability and Growth Pact, i.e. 3 % of the forecast GDP.

Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:

Revenues, grants and donations under CFP for 2024 are expected to be around BGN 72.0 billion, or 95,6 % of the annual estimates. The underperformance of the estimated CFP revenues is mainly due to the lower-than-planned revenues from grants and donations to the EU fund accounts (due to the non-receipt of the second and third tranches under the Recovery and Resilience Plan). Revenues to the national budget are close to those planned for the year, with the overperformance of the estimated tax revenues largely compensating the underperformance of the estimated non-tax revenues.

Tax revenues under CFP (including revenues from social security and health insurance contributions) are to the amount of BGN 58.7 billion, or 101.3 % of those planned for the year. Compared to 2023, revenues in this group have grown in nominal terms by BGN 6.4 billion (12.2 per cent). Non-tax revenues amount to around BGN 9.7 billion, remaining lower than planned in the estimates within the Law on the 2024 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria, mainly due to lower proceeds from the sale of non-financial assets (mainly in terms of the proceeds from the sale of greenhouse gas emission allowances), lower-than-planned state and municipal fees, etc. Revenues in the part of grants and donations (mainly grants under EU Programmes and Funds) amount to around BGN 3.6 billion, remaining significantly below the estimates within the Law on the 2024 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria (BGN 7.1 billion). This is due to the non-receipt of the planned second and third tranches under the Recovery and Resilience Plan as well as of part of the planned revenues under the EU operational programmes (underperformance of the estimated revenues from grants and donations under the CFP by around BGN 3.5 billion).

The CFP expenditures for 2024, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, amount to BGN 78.1 billion, or 95.8% of the annual estimates within the Law on the 2024 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria. Making a comparison with the previous year, there is an increase, mainly in social expenditures, due to the higher pensions paid following the increase effective as from July 2023 and July 2024, as well as in staff costs following the increase in teaching staff salaries and in some other administrations with the Law on the 2023 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria , and with the Law on the 2024 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria, etc.

If the budget systems forming the Consolidated Fiscal Programme are examined separately, there are significantly higher-than-planned expenditures in the budgets of municipalities and significantly lower-than-planned expenditures in the EU fund accounts.

Republic of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of 31 December 2024, amounts to BGN 1.6 billion, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units for 2024 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of January 2025.