29.01.2021

Based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of first-level spending units, the budget balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) on a cash basis as of the end of 2020 is negative, amounting to BGN 3,531.6 million (3.0 % of forecast GDP) and is formed by a deficit under the national budget of BGN 3,550.8 million and an excess of revenues over expenditures under EU funds of BGN 19.2 million. Compared to the updated estimates to the 2020 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law^[1], the CFP budget balance reports an improvement by BGN 1.7 billion in nominal terms. The factors contributing thereto are the good revenue performance, on the one hand, and the lower-than-planned expenditures and contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the general EU budget, on the other hand.

The CFP revenues, grants and donations for 2020 are to the amount of BGN 44,308.8 million, or 101.9 % of the annual estimates. Compared to the previous year, they have risen by BGN 260.2 million in nominal terms. Despite the negative impact of the pandemic on the macroeconomic perspectives as regards the domestic and external environment and the growth, tax and social security revenues report a nominal growth of 1.6 per cent (BGN 567.8 million) compared to the pre-crisis 2019.

Tax proceeds, including revenues from social security and health insurance contributions, total BGN 35,848.4 million, which is 102.7% as compared to the annual plans. The reported overperformance compared to the estimates in the group is mainly due to the higher-than-planned proceeds from corporate taxes, personal income taxes, VAT and social security and health insurance contributions. It should be noted that the proceeds in the group of corporate taxes, personal income taxes and income from social security and health insurance contributions report a nominal increase compared to the pre-crisis 2019, too.

Revenues from direct taxes amount to BGN 6,913.6 million, or 105.1 % compared to the annual estimates. Indirect tax revenues amount to BGN 16,722.4 million, (102.5 % compared to the annual estimates), with VAT revenues amounting to BGN 11,021.0 million (103.6 % compared to the plans), excise duty revenues – to BGN 5,444.5 million (99,9 % of the estimates), and customs duty revenues – to BGN 209.9 million (112.0 % compared to the annual estimates). Proceeds from other taxes, including property taxes and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN 1,203.9 million, or 99.5 % performance of the annual estimates. Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions are BGN 11,008.5 million, or 101.9% as compared to the annual estimates.

Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 5,764.4 million, or 97.9 % of the annual estimates, and proceeds from grants and donations amount to BGN 2,696.0 million. Proceeds from grants and donations (mostly EU programme and fund grants) are by BGN 231.3 million (9.4 %) more than in the previous year.

The expenditures under the CFP, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, amount to BGN 47,840.4 million for 2020, which is 98.1% of the annual estimates. For comparison, the expenditures under the CFP for 2019 amounted to BGN 45,201.0 million. The higher expenditures are mainly related to the social and economic measures taken to minimise the implications from the crisis, including payments under the 60/40 measure, payments to all those that stand in the frontline fighting the pandemic, including the expenditures on purchasing medicines and vaccines, payment of a monthly allowance of BGN 50 to the pensions of all pensioners for the August – December period, payments to businesses and farmers, as well as other expenditures under the measures approved. Compared to the previous year, there is a nominal increase in social payments, staff costs, subsidy expenditures, etc., where the majority of the expenditures related to the socio-economic measures tackling the pandemic have been reported.

Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 45,921.1 million, which is 99.0 % of the annual plans. Non-interest current expenditures for 2020 amount to BGN 40,781.1 million and capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN 5,080.5 million. The current and capital transfers to other countries amount to BGN 59.4 million. Interest payments amount to BGN 623.9 million, or 86.1% of those planned for 2020.

The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget in 2020, amounts to BGN 1,295.5 million, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources – Council Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union, and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.

Fiscal reserve as of 31.12.2020 is BGN 8.6 billion, including BGN 8.5 billion fiscal reserve deposits in BNB and banks and BGN 0.1 billion receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditure, advance payments, etc.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme performance data for 2020 are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance in Statistics section. The statistical data are accompanied by an Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the main indicators of the consolidated fiscal programme, which presents a short analysis of the performance of the key budget parameters on a consolidated level and by constituent budgets.

^[1] The data are as per the estimates to the 2020 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law (prom., SG No 100 of 20.12.2019; amended, SG No 28 of 24.03.2020; amended and supplemented, SG No 34 of 9.04.2020, SG No 60 of 7.07.2020; supplemented, SG No 98 of 17.11.2020; amended and supplemented, SG No 104 of 8.12.2020).