01.11.2019

Based on the preliminary data and estimates, as of October 2019, the excess of revenues over expenditures under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) is expected to amount to BGN 1,107.9 million (0.9% of the projected GDP).

Key CFP parameters based on preliminary data and estimates:

As of October 2019, CFP revenues and grants are expected to be BGN 36,305.8 million, which accounts for 82.8% of the annual estimate. Compared to October 2018, CFP revenues grow by BGN 3,692.9 million, with some growth being registered for both tax and non-tax revenues and proceeds from grants and donations where EU programme and fund grants are mainly received. The growth of tax revenues is BGN 2,342.4 million, non-tax revenues grow by BGN 1,075.0 million, while proceeds from grants and donations grow by BGN 275.5 million. A baseline effect mostly appears with regard to non-tax revenues relating to the revenues under the Electricity System Security Fund due to the amendments to the Energy Law in force as from 1 July 2018.

As of October 2019, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, amount to BGN 35,197.9 million, which accounts for 76.0% of the annual estimates[1]. For comparison, CFP expenditures for the same period of 2018 amount to BGN 29,768.6 million. The nominal increase in comparison to the same period of the previous year is due to the higher capital expenditures (due to the higher national budget expenditures, including those related to the implementation of the investment project for the acquisition of a new type of military aircraft for the Bulgarian air forces, as well as under the EU fund accounts),the staff costs (a 10% increase in the wage bill for the public sector and the next step of increasing the remunerations in the education sector), the higher social and health insurance payments (a baseline effect from the pension increase in July 2018 and July 2019 and an increase in the health insurance payments set out in the 2019 NHIF Budget Law), etc. 

The part of Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of 31.10.2019, amounts to BGN 1,090.9 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, i.e. Council Decision 2014/335/EU on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements, as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the key Consolidated Fiscal Programme indicators based on the monthly data on cash execution of first-level spending units as of October 2019 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of November 2019.

[1] Estimates to the Law amending the 2019 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law (promulgated in the State Gazette, issue 60 of 2019, effective as from 30.07.2019).