02.10.2024

Based on the preliminary data and estimates, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) budget balance as of end-September 2024 is expected to be a deficit of BGN 2.8 billion (1.4% of the projected GDP). The grounds to the draft state budget for the current year set an indicative size of the CFP deficit of BGN 6.2 billion for the year (3 per cent of the projected GDP in the budget macroframework).

The faster rate of increasing expenditures, mainly social expenditures (pensions, allowances and benefits) and personnel costs, continued in September, in line with the current legislative changes approved by the National Assembly. In addition to the regular monthly personnel, maintenance and social expenditure (pensions and health insurance payments) expenditures, government debt service expenditures, including interest payments of around BGN 0.4 billion, social payments of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy (one-off allowance to families with children in the first to fourth and eighth grades for the 2024/2025 school year, targeted aid for the new heating season, payments under the personal assistance mechanism under the Personal Assistance Law, etc.) amounting to around BGN 0.3 billion, etc., were also made this month.

Key CFP parameters based on preliminary data and estimates:

As of September 2024, CFP revenues, grants and donations are expected to be BGN 52.1 billion, representing a nominal increase by 9.3 per cent compared to the same period of the previous year. The trend of a moderate increase in receipts in the part of the tax and social security revenues observed in the previous months continued in September as well, with the execution as of September 2024 expected to be 73.0% of the annual estimates, against 70.3% for the same period of 2023.

Compared to the nine months of the previous year, the CFP proceeds increase by BGN 4.4 billion (9.3 per cent), which is due to the tax insurance revenues increasing by BGN 4.9 billion (13.2 per cent) in nominal terms and to the revenues in the part of grants and donations (mainly grants under EU programmes and funds) increasing by BGN 0.8 billion. Compared to the previous year, non-tax revenues decrease by BGN 1.3 billion (15.6 per cent), mainly due to dividend revenues and revenues from the sale of greenhouse gas emission allowances. Dividend revenues from state-owned enterprises for the state amounted to BGN 1.56 billion in the first nine months of 2023, while the proceeds for the period in the current year are only BGN 0.1 billion, as against the planned BGN 0.34 billion. The main reason for this is the non-distribution of dividend from the profit of BEH EAD for the financial 2023 year. Proceeds from the sale of greenhouse gas emission allowances are affected by the lower quantities and the lower price of allowances in 2024.

CFP expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget for September 2024, amount to BGN 54.9 billion, which accounts for 67.3% of the annual estimates. Compared to the previous year, there is an increase mainly in social expenditures due to the higher pensions paid following the increase effective as from July 2023 and July 2024, as well as in staff costs following the increase in salaries for teaching staff and in other administrations with the Law on the 2023 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria and the Law on the 2024 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria, etc. 

The part of the Republic of Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget paid from the central budget as of 30.09.2024 amounts to BGN 1.1 billion, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the key Consolidated Fiscal Programme indicators based on the monthly data on cash execution of first-level spending units as of September 2024 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of October 2024.