31.07.2019

Based on the monthly reports from first-level spending units, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of end-June 2019 is positive, amounting to BGN 3.225,0 million, or 2.8% of the projected GDP, and is formed by an excess of revenues over expenditures of BGN 3,108.0 million under the national budget and of BGN 116.9 million under EU funds.

The CFP revenues and grants as of June 2019 stand at BGN 22,285.6 million, or 50.8% of the annual estimates. Compared to the same period of the previous year, tax and non-tax revenues have risen by BGN 2,622.4 million (14.2%), while grant proceeds (mostly EU programme and fund grants) – have risen by BGN 453.0 million. As of the first six months of the year, the performance of revenues complies with the plan for the period and with the tax calendar specifics on the basis of which a considerable part of the annual proceeds under some taxes (corporate tax, PIT, etc.) is concentrated in the first half of the year. This is the reason why revenues in this period traditionally exceed 50 per cent of the annual plan.

Tax proceeds, including revenues from social security contributions, total BGN 17,686.3 million, which accounts for 51.2% of the tax revenues planned for the year.

Direct tax revenues amount to BGN 3,333.1 million, or 50.8% of those planned for the year.

Indirect tax revenues amount to BGN 8,533.9 million, which accounts for 51.9% of the annual estimates. VAT proceeds amount to BGN 5,549.0 million, or 51.2% of those planned. The excise duty revenues amount to BGN 2,849.0 million, or 53.4% of the annual estimates. Customs duty proceeds amount to BGN 114.8 million, or 48.4% of the annual estimates.

Proceeds from other taxes, including property taxes and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN 708.1 million, or 60.5% of the annual estimates.

Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions are BGN 5,111.2 million, which accounts for 49.2% of the estimates for the year. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the revenues from social security contributions have risen by 11.5 per cent in nominal terms.

Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 3,448.2 million, or 52.0% of the annual estimates. It should be noted that a baseline effect appears in the non-tax revenue part relating to the revenues under the Electricity System Security Fund due to the amendments to the Energy Law in force as from 1 July 2018 which have changed the mechanism for collection of revenues under the Fund’s budget. The revenues under the Fund’s budget for the first half of 2019 are therefore higher than the proceeds for the same period of 2018.

Grant proceeds amount to BGN 1,151.1 million.

CFP expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, amount to BGN 19,060.7 million as of June 2019, which accounts for 42.9% of the annual estimates[1]. It is evident that the absorption of expenditures is behind the revenue performance, which is also the reason for the excess of revenues over expenditures for the period. The planned pension indexation, which is set in the annual estimates, will take place in the second half of the year. In addition to that a majority of the capital expenditures planned for the year will be made in the second half of the year due to the construction season and some other factors.

Compared to the same period of the previous year, the CFP expenditures grow by 8.9 per cent in nominal terms, which is mainly due to the higher amount of staff costs (a 10% increase in the wage bill for the public sector and the next step of increasing the remunerations in the education sector), the higher social and health insurance payments (a baseline effect from the pension increase in July 2018 and an increase in the health insurance payments set out in the 2019 NHIF Budget Law), an increase in subsidy expenditures, etc.  

Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 17,930.0 million, which accounts for 42.4% of the annual estimates. Non-interest current expenditures as of June 2019 amount to BGN 16,416.7 million, capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN 1,499.7 million. The current and capital transfers to other countries amount to BGN 13.7 million. Interest payments amount to BGN 413.1 million, or 61.7% of those planned for 2019.

The part of Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of 30.06.2019, amounts to BGN 717.5 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, i.e. Council Decision 2014/335/EU on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements, as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.

The fiscal reserve as of 30 June 2019 is BGN 11.7 billion, including BGN 11.3 billion of fiscal reserve deposits in the BNB and in banks and BGN 0.4 billion of receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditures, advance payments, etc.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme implementation data as of 30 June 2019 are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance, in Statistics section. The statistics is accompanied by an Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the Main Indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme, which represents a short analysis of the performance of the key budget parameters on a consolidated level and by constituent budgets.

[1] The paper uses data under the 2019 State Budget Law estimate before the budget revision in July 2019 because the Law amending the 2019 State Budget of Republic of Bulgaria Law is approved after the reporting period has ended.