02.02.2024

Based on the preliminary data and estimates, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) budget balance for January 2024 is expected to be positive, amounting to BGN 0.4 billion (0.2% of the projected GDP), which is close to that reported for January 2023. CFP revenues, grants and donations increase by about 6.3 percent in January 2024 compared to January 2023, largely offsetting the higher expenditures mainly due to a baseline effect in social expenditures following the higher pensions paid in January 2024 after the increase which became effective as from July 2023. Among the other reasons are the higher staff costs following the increase in teaching staff salaries and in some other administrations with the Law on the 2023 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria passed in the middle of 2023.

Key CFP parameters based on preliminary data and estimates:

As of January 2024, CFP revenues, grants and donations are expected to be BGN 5.2 billion, increasing by BGN 0.3 billion compared to those reported in January 2023. This growth is mainly due to tax revenues which increase nominally by BGN 0.5 billion compared to January 2023, while non-tax revenues and proceeds in the part of grants and donations (mainly grants under EU programmes and funds) remain lower than the proceeds for January 2023 by around BGN 0.2 billion.

As of January 2024, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, amount to BGN 4.8 billion. For comparison, the CFP expenditures for January 2023 amount to BGN 4.4 billion. An increase in expenditures is expected with social payments, including pension costs, as well as in staff costs and other expenditures, while expenditures for subsidies to non-financial enterprises (mainly under the budget of the Electricity System Security Fund) record a decrease, mainly due to returning of the price for non-household electricity consumers to normal levels on the Bulgarian Independent Energy Exchange which remained below the set threshold for compensation payments in December 2023 and January 2024, while in January 2023 compensation payments were made to non-household consumers.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the key Consolidate Fiscal Programme indicators based on the monthly reports on cash execution of first-level spending units for January 2024 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of February 2024.