01.08.2023

Based on preliminary data and estimates the budget balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) as of July 2023 is expected to be positive, amounting to around BGN 0.5 billion (0.2 % of the forecast GDP). The improvement in the budget position continues in July and is mainly driven by the revenue side of the budget. In the part of the CFP tax revenues, the proceeds from direct taxes, social security and health insurance contributions and other taxes are increasing at a good pace, while indirect tax underperformance of previous months is being gradually compensated and by the end of July they are nominally close to those reported for the same period of the previous year. VAT revenues from intra-Community acquisitions are the main contributor to the improvement in indirect taxes. VAT revenues from imports continue to be influenced by the price of crude oil imported for processing, the USD exchange rate, as well as the quantities of imported goods giving rise to VAT, including crude oil. On a comparable basis, non-tax revenues are also growing, mainly due to higher property related revenues and income, revenue from fees, fines, sanctions and penalty interest, revenues from the sale of emission allowances, etc., while revenues in the part of grants are lower than those recorded for the seven months of the previous year.

Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:

As of July 2023, CFP revenues, grants and donations are BGN 37.4 billion, increasing by BGN 3.6 billion (10.6 per cent) compared to those reported as of end-July 2022. Compared to the same period of 2022, tax revenues under CFP have risen in nominal terms by BGN 2.7 billion (10.5 per cent), non-tax revenues – by BGN 1.3 billion (21.9 per cent), while proceeds from grants and donations (mainly grants under EU Programmes and Funds) have decreased by BGN 0.4 billion.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, as of July 2023 amount to BGN 36.9 billion. For comparison, CFP expenditures as of July 2022 amounted to BGN 32.3 billion which means that expenditures have increased in nominal terms by 14.4 %. The most significant increase in the individual expenditure indicators is recorded in terms of pension expenditures, as well as in the part of staff and capital expenditures, etc.

The part of Republic of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of 31 July 2023, amounts to BGN 0.99 billion, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units as of July 2023 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of August 2023.