02.12.2019

Based on the preliminary data and estimates, as of November 2019, the excess of revenues over expenditures under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) is expected to amount to BGN 1,072.2 million (0.9 % of the forecast GDP).

Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:

Revenues, grants and donations under CFP as of November 2019 are expected to be BGN 39,821,6 million, or 90,8 % of the annual estimates. As compared to November 2018, CFP revenues have risen by BGN 4,012.0 million, with growth being registered in both tax and non-tax revenues, and grants and donations where the grants under the EU programmes and funds are mostly recorded. The growth of tax revenues is BGN 2,737.6 million, of non-tax revenues – BGN 1,014.1 million, and of revenues from grants and donations – BGN 260.2 million. As regards non-tax revenues, there is mainly a baseline effect in the part of revenues under the Electricity System Security Fund due to the amendments to the Energy Law in force as from 1 July 2018.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, as of November 2019 amount to BGN 38,749.4 million, which accounts for 83.7 % of the annual estimates[1]. For comparison, the expenditures under the CFP for the same period of 2018 amounted to BGN 32,913.1 million. The nominal increase in comparison to the same period of the previous year is due to the higher capital expenditures (due to the higher national budget expenditures, including those related to the implementation of the investment project for the acquisition of a new type of military aircraft for the Bulgarian air forces, as well as under the EU fund accounts), the staff costs (a 10% increase in the wage bill for the public sector and the next step of increasing the remunerations in the education sector), the higher social and health insurance payments (a baseline effect from the pension increase in July 2018, the pension indexation in July 2019 and an increase in the health insurance payments set out in the 2019 NHIF Budget Law), etc. 

The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of 30.11.2019, amounts to BGN 1,135.6 million, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources – Council Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union, and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units as of November 2019 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of December 2019.

[1] Estimates to the Law amending and supplementing the 2019 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law (prom., SG, issue No 60 of 2019, in force from 30.07.2019).