31.01.2018

Based on preliminary data and estimates the balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) on a cash basis for January 2018 is expected to be positive, amounting to BGN 1,211.4 million (1.1 % of the forecast GDP). For comparison, a CFP surplus of BGN 884.2 million (0.9 % of GDP) was reported for January 2017. The main factors for the excess of revenues over expenditures in January are the good performance parameters of tax revenues and revenues from social security contributions to the national budget.

Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:

For January 2018, CFP revenues and grants are expected to be BGN 3,700.5 million (9.7 % of the annual estimate), registering a growth by BGN 361.7 million as against January 2017. Compared to the previous year, tax and non-tax proceeds under CFP have risen by BGN 504.4 million (15,8 %) in nominal terms, registering growth in most of the key taxes as well as in revenues from social security contributions.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, for January 2018 amount to BGN 2,489.1 million, which accounts for 6.3 % of the annual estimates. For comparison, CFP expenditures for January 2017 amounted to BGN 2,454.6 million. The nominal growth is mostly due to the higher social security and health insurance payments (a baseline effect on expenditures on pensions from their increase as from July 2017 and the two-step increase of the minimum pension in 2017 – as from July and October).

The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of 31.01.2018, amounts to BGN 84.0 million, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources – Council Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union, and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units for January 2018 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of February 2018.