30.11.2016

Based on the monthly data of first-level spending units, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of end-October 2016 is positive, amounting to BGN 3,434.9 million (3.9% of forecast GDP) and is formed by a surplus under the national budget of BGN 1,965.2 million and a surplus under EU funds of BGN 1,469.7 million. For comparison, a CFP surplus of BGN 63.9 million (0.1% of GDP) was reported for the same period of 2015, which means that, as a relative share of GDP, the budget stance has improved by 3.8 percentage points. The factors for the improvement in the budget stance continue to be the higher revenues and the lower rate of utilization of capital expenditures. In addition to the good national budget revenue parameters, the EU fund accounts also influence the current CFP balance, with the excess of revenues over expenditures there accounting for 1.7 % of the forecast GDP.

The CFP revenues and grants in October 2016 stand at BGN 28,289.5 million, or 85.7% of the annual estimates. Compared to the ten months of 2015, revenues and grants have grown by BGN 1,755.0 million (6.6%). The growth as compared to the previous year is due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues, which have risen by BGN 2,067.2 million, while grants (funds reimbursed by the European Commission) are lower. However, it should be noted that the performance of grants' annual estimates as of October is high (97.3%) and on an yearly basis proceeds from grants are expected to exceed the plan.

Tax proceeds, including revenues from social security and health insurance contributions, total BGN 22,308.6 million, which is 85.8% of the annual plans. Compared to October 2015 tax revenues have risen by 8.3% (BGN 1,708.0 million) in nominal terms.

Revenues from direct taxes amount to BGN 3,975.1 million, or 84.8% of the annual estimates, growing, as compared to October 2015, by BGN 357.1 million (9.9%).

Indirect tax revenues amount to BGN 11,471.3 million, or 86.5% of the 2016 Annual Budget Law plans. Compared to end-October 2015, the proceeds in this group have grown by BGN 915.8 million (8.7%). The VAT proceeds in the ten months of the year amount to BGN 7,276.0 million, or 86.5% of the planned for the year. Compared to the previous year, VAT revenues have risen by BGN 613.4 million. The amount of the non-refunded VAT as of end-October is BGN 109.5 million. There is also a growth in the excise duty revenues which amount to BGN 4,023.2 million (86.1% of the annual plans), while as against October 2015 they have grown by 7.5%, or BGN 281.3 million. Customs duty proceeds amount to BGN 144.6 million, or 96.4% of the planned for the year.

Proceeds from other taxes, including property taxes and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN 859.2 million, or 94.3% of the annual estimates.

Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions are BGN 6,003.0 million, or 84.1% of those planned for the year. Compared to the previous year these revenues have risen by 5.6% (BGN 320.4 million) in nominal terms 

Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 3,504.8 million, or 78.2% of the annual plans, which is by BGN 359.2 million (11.4%) more compared to end-October 2015.

As of 31.10.2016 grants amount to BGN 2,476.2 million or 97.3 % of the annual plan.

The expenditures under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, amount to BGN 24,854.6 million as of end-October 2016, which is 71.4% of the annual plans. For comparison, the expenditures under the CFP as of end-October 2015 amounted to BGN 26,470.6 million. The lower absorption of expenditures in the past months of the year is mostly linked to a delay in some capital expenditures (mostly EU fund accounts), which is due, on the one hand, to the low absorption at the initial stage of project implementation during the new programming period 2014-2020, and, on the other hand, to the shifting of the majority of capital expenditures to the end of the year due to some technological factors.

Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 23,493.6 million, which is 72.0% of the annual plans. Non-interest current expenditures as of end-October 2016 amount to BGN 21,729.0 million, or 82.0% of the annual estimates, capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN 1,764.6 million, or 28.9% of the 2016 Annual Budget Law plans. Interest payments amount to BGN 673.2 million, or 83.9% of those planned for 2016.

The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of October 2016, amounts to BGN 687.7 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom on the system of the Communities' own resources and Council Regulation No 1150/2000, as amended by Regulation No 2018/2004, Regulation No 105/2009 and Regulation No 1377/2014, implementing Decision 2007/436/EC.

Fiscal reserve as of 31.10.2016 is BGN 14.3 billion, including BGN 12.7 billion deposits in BNB and banks and BGN 1.6 billion receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditure, advance payments, etc.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme performance data as of 31 October 2016 are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance in Statistics section.