30.09.2016

Based on the monthly data of first-level spending units, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of August 2016 is positive, amounting to BGN 3,317.0 million, or 3.7% of the projected GDP, and is formed by a national budget surplus of BGN 1,913.1 million and by a surplus of EU funds of BGN 1,403.9 million. For comparison, a CFP surplus of BGN 622.0 million (0.7% of GDP) was reported in the first eight months of 2015, which means that, as a relative share of GDP, the budget stance has improved by 3.0 percentage points. The factors behind the improvement in the budget stance continue to be the higher revenues and the cutting of expenditures in comparison to the same period of the previous year. In addition to the good national budget revenue parameters, the EU fund accounts also influence the current CFP balance, with the excess of revenues over expenditures there accounting for 1.6% of the projected GDP.

The CFP revenues and grants in August 2016 stand at BGN 23,015.1 million, or at 69.7% of the annual estimates. Compared to the first eight months of 2015, revenues and grants have risen by BGN 1,524.1 million, or by 7.1%. The growth in comparison to the previous year is due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues which have grown by BGN 1,700.5 million, whereas grant proceeds (Commission refunds) have dropped by BGN 176.4 million. Nevertheless, the execution of grant proceeds as against the estimates is good, with domestic and foreign grant proceeds, mostly end-2015 certified expenditures reimbursed under the EU operational programmes and funds for the old 2007-2013 programming period, and advance payments received by the Commission for the new 2014-2020 programming period, amounting to BGN 2,217.1 million, which accounts for 87.2% of the annual estimates.

The tax proceeds, including revenues from social security contributions, total BGN 17,906.1 million, which accounts for 68.9% of the revenues planned for the year. Compared to August 2015, tax proceeds have risen in nominal terms by 8.2%, or by BGN 1,352.0 million. In structural terms, the proceeds from indirect taxes report the most considerable growth.

The direct tax revenues amount to BGN 3,280.0 million, or 70.0% of the annual estimates, growing as against August 2015 by BGN 273.2 million, or by 9.1%.

Revenues from indirect taxes amount to BGN 9,138.1 million, which accounts for 68.9% of the 2016 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law estimates. Compared to the previous year, the proceeds in this group have grown by BGN 736.8 million, or by 8.8%. The VAT proceeds in the first eight months of the year amount to BGN 5,834.9 million, or 69.4% of those planned for the year. Compared to the previous year, the VAT revenues have risen by BGN 447.5 million. The amount of the non-refunded VAT as of end-August is BGN 130.2 million. There is also a growth in the excise duty revenues which amount to BGN 3,164.4 million, or 67.8% of the annual estimates, while as against August 2015 they have grown by 9.3%, or by BGN 269.1 million. The customs duty proceeds amount to BGN 116.1 million, or 77.4% of the estimates for the year.

Proceeds from other taxes, including property taxes and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN 730.8 million, or 80.2% of the annual estimates.

Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions are BGN 4,757.1 million, which accounts for 66.7% of the estimates for the year. Compared to the previous year, the revenues from social security contributions have risen by 5.4%, or by BGN 245.2 million, in nominal terms. 

Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 2,891.8 million, which accounts for 64.5% of the annual estimates, and is by BGN 348.5 million, or 13.7%, more than end-August 2015.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget for August 2016, amount to BGN 19,698.1 million, which accounts for 56.6% of the annual estimates. For comparison, the CFP expenditures as of August 2015 amount to BGN 20,868.9 million. The lower absorption of expenditures in the first eight months of the year is mostly linked to a delay in some capital expenditures (mostly EU fund accounts), which is due, on the one hand, to the low absorption at the initial stage of project implementation during the new 2014-2020 programming period, and, on the other hand, to the shifting of the majority of capital expenditures to the last quarter of the year due to some technological and procedural factors.

Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 18,616.0 million, which accounts for 57.1% of the annual estimates. Non-interest current expenditure as of August 2016 amount to BGN 17,312.7 million, or 65.3% of the annual estimates, capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN 1,303.3 million, or 21.3% of the 2016 State Budget of the Republic Bulgaria Law estimates. Interest payments amount to BGN 545.7 million, or 68.0% of those planned for 2016.

The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, as paid as of August 2016 from the central budget, amounts to BGN 536.4 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom on the system of the Communities' own resources and Council Regulation No 1150/2000, as amended by Regulation No 2018/2004, Regulation No 105/2009 and Regulation No 1377/2014, implementing Decision 2007/436/EC.

Fiscal reserve as of 31.08.2016 is BGN 14.5 billion, including BGN 12.9 billion of deposits in the BNB fiscal reserve and in banks and BGN 1.6 billion of receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditure, advance payments, etc. 

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme implementation data as of 31 August 2016 are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance, in the Statistics section.