MoF expects excess of revenues over expenditures of BGN 1,071 million as of the end of the nine-month period of 2021
01.10.2021
Based on preliminary data and estimates the budget balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) as of the end of the nine-month period of 2021 is expected to be positive, amounting to around BGN 1,071 million (0.8 % of the forecast GDP).
Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:
As of September 2021, CFP revenues, grants and donations are expected to be BGN 37,800.8 million (74.8 % of the revised annual estimate), registering growth of tax and non-tax revenues of nearly 5.4 % as compared to the same period of 2020, while proceeds from grants are close to the ones reported for the nine-month period of the previous year.
The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, as of September 2021 are expected to amount to BGN 36,729.8 million, which is 66.6 % of the annual estimates. For comparison, the expenditures under the CFP for the same period of 2020 amounted to BGN 31,550.9 million. The significant growth of expenditures as of September 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year is related, on the one hand, to the lower base in 2020 when, during the same period, the expenditures on addressing the COVID-19 pandemic were significantly lower, while as of the nine-month period of 2021 these expenditures are significant, and, on the other hand, to the income policy, the policies in the social sphere and the higher expenditures on the administration laid down in the 2021 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law.
Considered by economic elements, the most significant increase is reported in social and health insurance expenditures. In the area ofpension expenditures, nearly BGN 950 million were spent on payment of an allowance of BGN 50 to the pensions of all pensioners for the months from January to September. In addition, pension expenditures were also influenced by the increase in the amount of the minimum contributory-service and retirement-age pension and of the maximum amount of the pension as from the beginning of the year, a baseline effect of the increase in pensions in July 2020, as well as the increase in July 2021. In the area of health insurance expenditures, these report an increase related to higher expenditures on tackling the pandemic and arrangements for financing health establishments in the context of the emergency epidemic situation: expenditures on medicines, tests, consumables and protective equipment, funds to support front-line staff in the fight against COVID-19 (supplementary monthly remuneration of BGN 1,000), payment to medical staff for vaccination of the population against COVID-19, monthly allowance of BGN 600 for doctors, BGN 360 for nurses and midwives and BGN 120 for hospital attendants, etc. The payments under the 60/40 measure, the 80/20 measure, the “Keep Me” measure, the “Working Capital Support For SMEs Affected by the Temporary Anti-Epidemic Measures” measure administered by the NRA, etc., have contributed to the growing expenditures on subsidies for non-financial enterprises.
The part of Republic of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of September 2021, amounts to BGN 1,094.0 million, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources.
The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units as of September 2021 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of October 2021.